View Poll Results: What is your opinion on global warming?

Voters
173. You may not vote on this poll
  • It's happening and we're to blame

    87 50.29%
  • It's happening but it's not man made

    21 12.14%
  • It's not even happening, except according to the cycles of nature

    48 27.75%
  • Undecided / No opinion

    17 9.83%
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Thread: Still Believe in Global Warming?

  1. #1801
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    I just quoted the report. Neither the point 2) or my response reference temperature. You're bringing that up. That's your diction. Unlike your signature, I know how to quote things.

  2. #1802

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    Quote Originally Posted by Channing View Post
    I just quoted the report. Neither the point 2) or my response reference temperature. You're bringing that up. That's your diction. Unlike your signature, I know how to quote things.
    Granary said global warming was natural.

    You're saying "warming" doesn't reference temperature?

    LOL.

    It's always a mistake trying to discuss complex things with climate advocates. So easily confused.
    "Without feedbacks, a doubling of CO2 would result in 1 °C global warming, which is undisputed." Climate sensitivity, Wikipedia

  3. #1803
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    ^That's ironic considering this whole thread is you taking a complex issue such as climate change and removing all nuance, context, and proper scientific method until it's simplified to a point where you can attempt to make it look unreasonable.

  4. #1804
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    I'm saying the concept of global warming involves things like greenhouse gases that influence temperature. Their claim was that global warming was a natural phenomenon. I provided a quote showing that the rate of change of C02, which causes global warming (and you have agreed with, and that reference notes) is unprecedented.

    My quote therefore is a response to global warming being natural and something that had been previously observed based on ice cores.

  5. #1805

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    Quote Originally Posted by Channing View Post
    I'm saying the concept of global warming involves things like greenhouse gases that influence temperature. Their claim was that global warming was a natural phenomenon. I provided a quote showing that the rate of change of C02, which causes global warming (and you have agreed with, and that reference notes) is unprecedented.

    My quote therefore is a response to global warming being natural and something that had been previously observed based on ice cores.
    What a crock of ****.

    Global warming advocates accuse "deniers" of everything they do.
    "Without feedbacks, a doubling of CO2 would result in 1 °C global warming, which is undisputed." Climate sensitivity, Wikipedia

  6. #1806
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    I don't understand your response. What did I accuse you of in my message you quoted (post id 1804)

  7. #1807

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    Advocating a better Edmonton through effective, efficient and economical transit.

  8. #1808

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    Climate change: Global sea level rise could be bigger than expected - BBC News
    Excerpt:

    “Scientists believe that global sea levels could rise far more than predicted, due to accelerating melting in Greenland and Antarctica.

    The long-held view has been that the world's seas would rise by a maximum of just under a metre by 2100.

    This new study, based on expert opinions, projects that the real level may be around double that figure.”


    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-48337629




    Antarctic instability 'is spreading' - BBC News

    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-48249287
    Last edited by KC; 21-05-2019 at 06:59 AM.

  9. #1809

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    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    Climate change could render many of Earth’s ecosystems unrecognizable | National Post

    https://nationalpost.com/news/world/...unrecognizable
    An asteroid "could" hit the earth and destroy all life on earth. I wonder if that were to happen, and we were aware of it, if all the environmentalists would demand that we don't try to stop the Asteroid, because that would be humans interfering with nature?

  10. #1810

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    Quote Originally Posted by downtownone View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    Climate change could render many of Earth’s ecosystems unrecognizable | National Post

    https://nationalpost.com/news/world/...unrecognizable
    An asteroid "could" hit the earth and destroy all life on earth. I wonder if that were to happen, and we were aware of it, if all the environmentalists would demand that we don't try to stop the Asteroid, because that would be humans interfering with nature?
    In the 1970s my cousin with a few others started one of the earliest “environmental” companies and did very well in that business. (Even had Maurice Strong on the Board - see bio link below.)

    I sure didn’t see my cousin as a fanatic. I feel most environmentalists are generally conservative. My cousin came from a conservative minded family (my cousin’s father was in the military in WWII and then a radio station manager and land owner, hunter, fisher, river boater, etc. and his mother an entrepreneur, President of a Chamber of Commerce, business consultant, etc. Gee my cousin was once even on the board of MEC - a retailer!)

    So I see many environmentalists like my cousin as seeing the trends of the day as just plain excessive and destructive. (Destroying waterways, wiping out old growth forests, etc.) He worked to introduce ideas around sustainable development etc. which is nothing new but has to be learned over and over again. Think of the old old practice of field crop rotation and cases where it has been forgotten. The risks of forgetting common sense and just pursuing profits and growth can introduce very bad practices with enormous negative consequences.

    Our societies have continued with the massive destruction on one environmental front or another and we’ll just have to deal with the consequences.



    Check out his background, and see if you think he was an environmental extremist:


    Maurice Strong - Wikipedia

    “Maurice Frederick Strong, PC, CC, OM, FRSC, FRAIC (April 29, 1929 – November 27, 2015) was a Canadian oil and mineral businessman and a diplomat who served as Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations.[4][5]

    “Strong had his start as an entrepreneur in the Alberta oil patch and was President of Power Corporation of Canada
    until 1966. In the early 1970s he was Secretary General of the United Nations Conference on the Human Environment and then became the first executive director of the United Nations Environment Programme. He returned to Canada to become Chief Executive Officer of Petro-Canada from 1976 to 1978. He headed Ontario Hydro, one of North America's largest power utilities, was ...”


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maurice_Strong
    bolding mine


    Myself, I’m a lifetime member of one large environmental organization but I’ve had a V10 Excursion, and a dirty diesel tractor, and various toys. We minimize their use and bought a cleaner diesel SUV.) I’ve also minimized my footprint in a number of other ways. My family has owner and do protected nearly 3/4 mile of lakefront property plus a creek by not developing it and letting 95% of it stay wild.
    Last edited by KC; 21-05-2019 at 09:34 AM.

  11. #1811
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    Re KC's post #1808.

    The study being referenced in the BBC article is available here:

    https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2.../14/1817205116

    It is always preferable to look at the actual study if it is available online - as is the case here - if for no other reason that it makes it harder for global warming deniers to make false claims about alarmism and exaggeration.

    The study authors make it clear that they are looking at scenarios for sea level rise that deal with worst case unchecked emissions growth. This worst case scenario involves global temperature rising 5 degrees Celcius or more by 2100, not scenarios for GHG emissions growth that are most likely to occur. In other words, what might happen to sea level if nothing was done to curtail emissions growth.

    Key findings are as follows:

    We find that since the AR5, expert uncertainty has grown, in particular because of uncertain ice dynamic effects. For a +2 °C temperature scenario consistent with the Paris Agreement, we obtain a median estimate of a 26 cm SLR contribution by 2100, with a 95th percentile value of 81 cm. For a +5 °C temperature scenario more consistent with unchecked emissions growth, the corresponding values are 51 and 178 cm, respectively. Inclusion of thermal expansion and glacier contributions results in a global total SLR estimate that exceeds 2 m at the 95th percentile.

  12. #1812

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    Quote Originally Posted by East McCauley View Post
    Re KC's post #1808.

    The study being referenced in the BBC article is available here:

    https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2.../14/1817205116

    It is always preferable to look at the actual study if it is available online - as is the case here - if for no other reason that it makes it harder for global warming deniers to make false claims about alarmism and exaggeration.

    The study authors make it clear that they are looking at scenarios for sea level rise that deal with worst case unchecked emissions growth. This worst case scenario involves global temperature rising 5 degrees Celcius or more by 2100, not scenarios for GHG emissions growth that are most likely to occur. In other words, what might happen to sea level if nothing was done to curtail emissions growth.

    Key findings are as follows:

    We find that since the AR5, expert uncertainty has grown, in particular because of uncertain ice dynamic effects. For a +2 °C temperature scenario consistent with the Paris Agreement, we obtain a median estimate of a 26 cm SLR contribution by 2100, with a 95th percentile value of 81 cm. For a +5 °C temperature scenario more consistent with unchecked emissions growth, the corresponding values are 51 and 178 cm, respectively. Inclusion of thermal expansion and glacier contributions results in a global total SLR estimate that exceeds 2 m at the 95th percentile.
    The one-upmanship on who can predict the most catastrophic scenario in climate science is endlessly entertaining. But is it science?
    Even the IPCC does not endorse these extremes. Does that make scientists at the IPCC climate deniers?

    Always good for a laugh.
    "Without feedbacks, a doubling of CO2 would result in 1 °C global warming, which is undisputed." Climate sensitivity, Wikipedia

  13. #1813
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    Quote Originally Posted by MrCombust
    Always good for a laugh.
    This text is appropriate for whatever you post. I may continue to quote this in the future.

  14. #1814

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    Quote Originally Posted by MrCombust View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by East McCauley View Post
    Re KC's post #1808.

    The study being referenced in the BBC article is available here:

    https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2.../14/1817205116

    It is always preferable to look at the actual study if it is available online - as is the case here - if for no other reason that it makes it harder for global warming deniers to make false claims about alarmism and exaggeration.

    The study authors make it clear that they are looking at scenarios for sea level rise that deal with worst case unchecked emissions growth. This worst case scenario involves global temperature rising 5 degrees Celcius or more by 2100, not scenarios for GHG emissions growth that are most likely to occur. In other words, what might happen to sea level if nothing was done to curtail emissions growth.

    Key findings are as follows:

    We find that since the AR5, expert uncertainty has grown, in particular because of uncertain ice dynamic effects. For a +2 °C temperature scenario consistent with the Paris Agreement, we obtain a median estimate of a 26 cm SLR contribution by 2100, with a 95th percentile value of 81 cm. For a +5 °C temperature scenario more consistent with unchecked emissions growth, the corresponding values are 51 and 178 cm, respectively. Inclusion of thermal expansion and glacier contributions results in a global total SLR estimate that exceeds 2 m at the 95th percentile.
    The one-upmanship on who can predict the most catastrophic scenario in climate science is endlessly entertaining. But is it science?
    Even the IPCC does not endorse these extremes. Does that make scientists at the IPCC climate deniers?

    Always good for a laugh.
    I would call it the pursuit of accuracy. Assuming little to no change to the current trend eliminates a lot of assumptions that only bring criticism. So with that out of the way then improving the forecast through whatever means are available provided more accuracy to the model. Confounding variables though can still put off forecasts.

  15. #1815

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    Very interesting article:


    Ross McKitrick: This scientist proved climate change isn’t causing extreme weather — so politicians attacked | Financial Post


    “...
    n the second half of his talk, Pielke reviews the science as found in the most recent (2013) IPCC Assessment Report, the 2018 U.S. National Climate Assessment, and the most up-to-date scientific data and literature. Nothing substantial has changed.

    Globally there’s no clear evidence of trends and patterns in extreme events such as droughts, hurricanes and floods. Some regions experience more, some less and some no trend. Limitations of data and inconsistencies in patterns prevent confident claims about global trends one way or another. There’s no trend in U.S. hurricane landfall frequency or intensity. If anything, the past 50 years has been relatively quiet. There’s no trend in hurricane-related flooding in the U.S. Nor is there evidence of an increase in floods globally. Since 1965, more parts of the U.S. have seen a decrease in flooding than have seen an increase. And from 1940 to today, flood damage as a percentage of GDP has fallen to less than 0.05 per cent per year from about 0.2 per cent.

    And on it goes. There’s no trend in U.S. tornado damage (in fact, 2012 to 2017 was below average). There’s no trend in global droughts. Cold snaps in the U.S. are down but, unexpectedly, so are heatwaves.
    ...”



    https://business.financialpost.com/o...cians-attacked
    Last edited by KC; 10-06-2019 at 12:35 PM.

  16. #1816
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    McKitrick is a pretty committed denier who has no actual scientific background in climatology. So it's no surprise on what side of the argument he'd fall. Looks like Pielke was not as good at it, though: https://skepticalscience.com/Roger_Pielke_Jr_blog.htm

    https://skepticalscience.com/fivethi...e-damages.html

    Note that while Pielke's post has received extensive criticism (e.g. Climate Progress, Things Break, The Huffington Post, Daily Kos, and Columbia Journalism Review), some have claimed that criticism is because he "flunked the green purity test" (i.e. National Journal). The latter argument falls prey to the false "honest broker" narrative. Pielke isn't criticized because of a lack of "purity," he's criticized because he consistently provides a skewed representation of the body of peer-reviewed science, downplaying links between climate change and extreme weather and only focusing on areas where those links are uncertain. On FiveThirtyEight he's done even worse, making a number of false claims, including about his own research. That is why those of us who care about accurately representing the scientific literature criticize Pielke.The bottom line is that many types of extreme weather are being intensified by human-caused global warming, and that will continue in the future. And there is evidence that climate change is adding to the costs of extreme weather damage. There's an important lesson for FiveThirtyEight to learn here – sometimes conclusions are counter-intuitive because they're wrong.

  17. #1817

  18. #1818

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    thanks. This we good(see below).

    The thing is, these are complex issues. The previous research likely didn’t look at the data the way he did, thus he was able to challenge previous research. So every analyst adds new perspectives. It’s just too bad that everyone is using their own research as giving the definitive results.



    “However, Pielke's research does not account for the costs and avoided damages associated with mitigation efforts, for example improved building codes and hurricane path forecasting. This point was made by climate scientists Judith Curry in 2007:
    "The second problem with the analysis is that the paper does not account for major engineering improvements that rendered these regions in Florida less susceptible to damage."

    and Kevin Trenberth in Science in 2010:

    "He completely ignores the benefits from improvements in hurricane warning times, changes in building codes, and other factors that have been important in reducing losses."

    ...”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environm...hange-research

  19. #1819

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    The always insightful BP Statistical Review of World Energy is released.

    https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/bu...ull-report.pdf

    Worth reading in full. But I just wanted to highlight the commentary from BP’s chief economist here:

    My guess is that when our successors look back at Statistical Reviews from around this period, they will observe a world in which there was growing societal awareness and demands for urgent action on climate change, but where the actual energy data continued to move stubbornly in the wrong direction.

    A growing mismatch between hopes and reality. In that context, I fear – or perhaps hope – that 2018 will represent the year in which this mismatch peaked.
    Digging into the data further, it seems that much of the surprising strength in energy consumption in 2018 may be related to weather effects. In particular, there was an unusually large number of hot and cold days across many of the world’s major demand centres last year, particularly in the US, China and Russia, with the increased demand for cooling and heating services helping to explain the strong growth in energy consumption in each of these countries.

  20. #1820
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    Yeah, I thought one of the most interesting stats was that of the increase in world energy consumption last year, roughly a third was from renewables. So that's good! Another third came from coal. Not so much.

  21. #1821

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    In terms of consumption I was astounded at the popularity of home air conditioning systems in Edmonton.

    How America became addicted to air conditioning | Energy | The Guardian


    “Only now is the US waking up to the environmental cost of such massive energy consumption – and to the chilling prospect that the rest of the world may follow its example. The proportion of homes in Chinese cities with air conditioning rocketed from 8% to 70% between 1995 and 2004.
    US statistics are bracing. A nation with 318 million people accounting for just 4.5% of world population consumes more energy for air conditioning than the rest of the world combined. It uses more electricity for cooling than Africa, population 1.1 billion, uses for everything.
    ...
    https://www.theguardian.com/environm...r-conditioning


    Global Air Conditioning Market Will Reach USD 292.7 Billion By 2025

    “The global air conditioning market is likely to grow significantly in the upcoming years, due to improving economic conditions, rising per capita income, and increasing pollution levels. Technological advancements witnessed in developing countries are also driving the air conditioning market globally. The rising level of air pollution is harming not only the environment but also the people living in that particular environment. Pollution is giving rise to fatigue and headaches, which are common symptoms caused by poor air quality. This is further propelling the global air conditioning system market. However, the high cost of air conditioning system may hinder this market’s growth. As air conditioning has become more of a necessity keeping aside the needs and wants, the challenge for air conditioning manufacturing companies will be to make air conditioning systems cheaper and more effective than before.”

    https://globenewswire.com/news-relea...-Research.html


    The air conditioning paradox | National Observer

    “China leads the world with 569 million units installed, and now spends 68 times more electricity for cooling than it did in 1990. With a burgeoning middle class, China's demand for air conditioners is rising faster than anywhere else in the world.”

    https://www.nationalobserver.com/201...ioning-paradox

    Last edited by KC; 12-06-2019 at 12:40 PM.

  22. #1822

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    CO2 Emissions Up As Europeans Switch From Diesel To Gasoline Cars | Watts Up With That?

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/04/...gasoline-cars/


    Climate change: 'No brainer' fuel change to cut transport carbon - BBC News

    “One of the unintended consequences of 2015's diesel emissions scandal has been a jump in the sales of petrol cars, with a knock-on effect on sales of the fuel.

    This has contributed to the first increase in emissions of CO2 from new cars in two decades recorded in 2017.”


    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-49003496
    Last edited by KC; 19-07-2019 at 04:14 AM.

  23. #1823

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    The end times are here, and I am at Target | The Outline

    https://theoutline.com/post/7754/cli...cults-prophecy

  24. #1824

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    Quote Originally Posted by Snail View Post
    The end times are here, and I am at Target | The Outline

    https://theoutline.com/post/7754/cli...cults-prophecy
    What are we all going to die of? Does everybody drop dead when the global average temperature goes up 2 degrees? Will Edmontonians die when it's -20 instead of -30?

    Nostradamus’s writings, the augurs of the climate movement come armed with science — repeatable and verifiable"

    How did they verify the climate software simulations? They didn't. Except to verify they all failed. No Vikings in Greenland still.

    Fake apocalypse. Look for another one.
    "Without feedbacks, a doubling of CO2 would result in 1 °C global warming, which is undisputed." Climate sensitivity, Wikipedia

  25. #1825

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    Repeatable? What are you asking for? 10 or 20 100 year forecasts verified before acting?

  26. #1826

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    Do you carry insurance on your house? If so why?

  27. #1827

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    Does anyone can point me to a reputable source dissecting what the Michael Mann lawsuit vs. Tim Ball entails? What does the court dismissal mean? Simple goolging only returns various blog posts that I am not sure how trustworthy they are.

  28. #1828

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    Quote Originally Posted by MrCombust View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Snail View Post
    The end times are here, and I am at Target | The Outline

    https://theoutline.com/post/7754/cli...cults-prophecy
    What are we all going to die of? Does everybody drop dead when the global average temperature goes up 2 degrees? Will Edmontonians die when it's -20 instead of -30?

    Nostradamus’s writings, the augurs of the climate movement come armed with science — repeatable and verifiable"

    How did they verify the climate software simulations? They didn't. Except to verify they all failed. No Vikings in Greenland still.

    Fake apocalypse. Look for another one.
    You’re missing the point. Or rather the tail. Think back to your basic junior or high school stats and ignore this average crap.

  29. #1829

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    Quote Originally Posted by Snail View Post
    Does anyone can point me to a reputable source dissecting what the Michael Mann lawsuit vs. Tim Ball entails? What does the court dismissal mean? Simple goolging only returns various blog posts that I am not sure how trustworthy they are.
    This is a global warming smash. Only skeptic blogs will report this devestating loss. None of the global warming liar blogs will admit Michael Mann refused to defend his fraudulent graph.

    Good luck.
    "Without feedbacks, a doubling of CO2 would result in 1 °C global warming, which is undisputed." Climate sensitivity, Wikipedia

  30. #1830
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    ^Quite a different take on the lawsuit here:

    Despite the victory laps from O’Sullivan and the rest, the judge didn’t rule in favor of Ball in the Mann case. Rather, the court dismissed the case on the basis that it has dragged on and been delayed for so long. Ball requested a ruling based on the timing instead of merits to allow the court avoid the messiness of whether or not his attacks on Mann’s climate science were valid. Now Mann (and his lawyers) have a month to decide if they’d like to appeal.
    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/201...gXJie033Dlzdzs

    Hopefully, Mann will decide against an appeal and let the matter drop. One of the arguments Ball made in favour of a dismissal is that he is in failing health (he is almost 81 years old). Picking on sick old people is rarely a winning legal strategy.

  31. #1831

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    Quote Originally Posted by East McCauley View Post
    ^Quite a different take on the lawsuit here:

    Despite the victory laps from O’Sullivan and the rest, the judge didn’t rule in favor of Ball in the Mann case. Rather, the court dismissed the case on the basis that it has dragged on and been delayed for so long. Ball requested a ruling based on the timing instead of merits to allow the court avoid the messiness of whether or not his attacks on Mann’s climate science were valid. Now Mann (and his lawyers) have a month to decide if they’d like to appeal.
    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/201...gXJie033Dlzdzs

    Hopefully, Mann will decide against an appeal and let the matter drop. One of the arguments Ball made in favour of a dismissal is that he is in failing health (he is almost 81 years old). Picking on sick old people is rarely a winning legal strategy.
    LOL

    Poor, doddery, Tim Ball wins another court case against a climate liar. First, Andrew Weaver, now Michael Mann.
    My advice to climate scientists....... if Tim Ball calls you a fraud, don't sue him.
    He begs the court to dismiss on his failing health and delays, and the judge awards him costs??????

    The case was thrown out cuz Micheal Mann wouldn't prove his graph wasn't a fraud. The judge gave Mann a deadline to show his data.

    LOL
    Last edited by MrCombust; 02-09-2019 at 06:08 PM.
    "Without feedbacks, a doubling of CO2 would result in 1 °C global warming, which is undisputed." Climate sensitivity, Wikipedia

  32. #1832

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    Yes interesting article. Some teasers:


    Tim Ball Pleads For Mercy As An Irrelevant Sick Old Man, Gets It, Declares Victory
    On the health front, the plea to toss the case notes that Ball, ...

    Ball’s attorney also added that his website doesn’t show up in at least 92% of searches for Dr. Mann, and that it has “low popularity.”

    What this all means: no, the court didn’t rule ... And no, it has nothing to do with ...

    Again, Mann took to Twitter to explain that “The ‘Hockey Stick’ data & code are ...

    And for whether or not the hockey stick, showing a rapid increase in temperatures in the modern era, has broken, ...

    Far from being a clear win for the deniers, the ruling ...


    https://www.dailykos.com/story/2019/...clares-Victory

  33. #1833

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    Unfortunately right on top of the article says the content is prepared by a dailykos “community member” and that:

    (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)


    That’s why I was wondering if a main stream media outlet, subject to journalism standards, has a reporting on the matter.

    Edit addition: MrCombust, as you might have seen in my last post there, I have retired from your thread, TRUTH. I am only interested in meaningful dialogue, which involves listening other points of views and accepting logical arguments. Please do not pollute this thread.
    Last edited by Snail; 02-09-2019 at 06:44 PM.

  34. #1834

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    Quote Originally Posted by Snail View Post
    Unfortunately right on top of the article says the content is prepared by a dailykos “community member” and that:

    (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)


    That’s why I was wondering if a main stream media outlet, subject to journalism standards, has a reporting on the matter.

    Edit addition: MrCombust, as you might have seen in my last post there, I have retired from your thread, TRUTH. I am only interested in meaningful dialogue, which involves listening other points of views and accepting logical arguments. Please do not pollute this thread.
    You're not interested in meaningful dialog. Here, you're looking for another explanation as to why the case was thrown out and Tim Ball awarded costs. Any explanation except the obvious.
    Stating the obvious, and being skeptical is good science, not pollution.

    But it's not what you believe, not what you want to hear, and not what you want to discuss.

    But to help you out in the spirit of good discourse the judge's decision has not been put in writing yet. When it is it will be published by the court and publically available.

    Mann's next challenge will be against Mark Steyn who is counter suing for millions. Not sure what will happen there if Mann continues to stonewall the courts.
    Last edited by MrCombust; 02-09-2019 at 07:33 PM.
    "Without feedbacks, a doubling of CO2 would result in 1 °C global warming, which is undisputed." Climate sensitivity, Wikipedia

  35. #1835

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    Speaking of polluting arguments, Taleb addresses that here:

    Nassim Taleb on Global Warming - YouTube

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TSDWX2Lrri8



    Climate models and precautionary measures
    Joseph Norman†, Rupert Read§, Yaneer Bar-Yam†, Nassim Nicholas Taleb ⇤
    †New England Complex Systems Institute, §School of Philosophy, University of East Anglia, ⇤School of Engineering, New York University

    Excerpt:

    “THE POLICY DEBATE with respect to anthropogenic climate-change typically revolves around the accuracy of models. Those who contend that models make accurate predictions argue for specific policies to stem the foreseen damaging effects; those who doubt their accuracy cite a lack of reliable evidence of harm to warrant policy action.
    These two alternatives are not exhaustive. One can sidestep the "skepticism" of those who question existing climate-models, by framing risk in the most straight- forward possible terms, at the global scale. That is, we should ask "what would the correct policy be if we had no reliable models?"
    ...”

    https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/climateletter.pdf
    Last edited by KC; 02-09-2019 at 08:17 PM.

  36. #1836

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    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    Speaking of polluting arguments, Taleb addresses that here:

    Nassim Taleb on Global Warming - YouTube

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TSDWX2Lrri8



    Climate models and precautionary measures
    Joseph Norman†, Rupert Read§, Yaneer Bar-Yam†, Nassim Nicholas Taleb ⇤
    †New England Complex Systems Institute, §School of Philosophy, University of East Anglia, ⇤School of Engineering, New York University

    Excerpt:

    “THE POLICY DEBATE with respect to anthropogenic climate-change typically revolves around the accuracy of models. Those who contend that models make accurate predictions argue for specific policies to stem the foreseen damaging effects; those who doubt their accuracy cite a lack of reliable evidence of harm to warrant policy action.
    These two alternatives are not exhaustive. One can sidestep the "skepticism" of those who question existing climate-models, by framing risk in the most straight- forward possible terms, at the global scale. That is, we should ask "what would the correct policy be if we had no reliable models?"
    ...”

    https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/climateletter.pdf
    I like sciencey reports. Especially ones that rely on "ancestral knowledge". This report is hysterical. It talks about what we do about "uncertainty". The report is "certain", about so many things it's comical that they pretend to address uncertainty. I think they were all smoking weed when they drafted it.
    "Without feedbacks, a doubling of CO2 would result in 1 °C global warming, which is undisputed." Climate sensitivity, Wikipedia

  37. #1837

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    “If you survive until tomorrow, it could mean that either a) you are more likely to be immortal or b) that you are closer to death.” - Nassim Nicholas Taleb,

  38. #1838

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    This post could be posted in multiple other threads, but nevertheless...

    Marc Owen Jones is an assistant Prof of Middle East studies, but in Twitter is known for his investigative works on trolling.

    Today he published a fascinating thread on trolls inflating hashtags against Trudeau, as we approach election date.

    https://twitter.com/marcowenjones/st...46922381508609

    As he has shown in multiple other analysis, in Jan. 2017 (the inauguration of President Trump), a large cohort of pro-Trump Twitter accounts are created that keep engaging in divisive behavior (Climate denial, pro-gun, Islamophobic etc) A similar spike in account creation is observed in Jan. 2018, which Marc Owen Jones speculates is due to the renewal of contract with troll farm behind those accounts. A network analysis shows some key Twitter accounts are at the intersection of Pro-Trump and anti-Trudeau activities.




    One key account, shown in green above, is @mrc69.

    And here is the Twitter bio of that account:



    Interestingly enough, that account links a climate-denial website and is based in Alberta.

    Anyways, that is an interesting thread to read, even if only for your Friday evening entertainment: https://twitter.com/marcowenjones/st...46922381508609

  39. #1839

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    Thanks for posting this. What amazes me are that a lot of this psychological manipulation is done though stupid little cartoons/memes/posters with little quotes and sayings - as if most adults never matured beyond understanding Bugs Bunny and the newspaper’s cartoon strips.


    Marc Owen Jones on Twitter: "[Thread] As I mentioned earlier, what follows is an analysis of the 'Trudeau Must Go' hashtag. It seems people's instinctive suspicions that the hashtag is manipulated by an organized disinformation campaign are valid. The findings are alarmingly familiar... #cndpoli" / Twitter

    https://twitter.com/marcowenjones/st...46922381508609





    The Rebel Media: The Liberals, CTV blame #TrudeauMustGo hashtag on “bots” — but here's the truth

    About this Episode
    The Ezra Levant Show (July 22, 2019) —The whole point of this story — first concocted by the Tides Foundation front group, the National Observer, then promoted by Trudeau’s friend “George,” the CEO of Bell — is to demonize Internet opponents; or in this case, make up opponents where there are none. Guest: Manny Montenegrino

    Support The Rebel Media

    https://therebelmedia.fireside.fm/th...w-july-22-2019
    Bolding the truth word is mine
    also bolding THE ASK (aka give me some of your hard earned cash)



    Never trust someone that says “trust me”
    Never trust a bank that had “trust” in its name
    Never believe a report or thread that says it’s telling you the “truth”.
    Last edited by KC; 07-09-2019 at 06:14 AM.

  40. #1840

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    The Limits of Clean Energy
    If the world isn’t careful, renewable energy could become as destructive as fossil fuels.

    BY JASON HICKEL | SEPTEMBER 6, 2019
    Excerpts:

    “And then there are all the batteries we’re going to need for power storage. To keep energy flowing when the sun isn’t shining and the wind isn’t blowing will require enormous batteries at the grid level. This means 40 million tons of lithium—an eye-watering 2,700 percent increase over current levels of extraction.

    That’s just for electricity. ”

    ...

    “The real issue is that this will exacerbate an already existing crisis of overextraction. Mining has become one of the biggest single drivers of deforestation, ecosystem collapse, and biodiversity loss around the world. Ecologists estimate that even at present rates of global material use, we are ....”

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/09/06...ge-renewables/
    Last edited by KC; 07-09-2019 at 07:25 AM.

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