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Thread: House Prices - due to tumble?

  1. #601
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    ^ Heh, if that were the case I'd be enrolling in a Real Estate course pronto.
    Nisi Dominus Frustra

  2. #602

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    Quote Originally Posted by kcantor View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Marcel Petrin View Post
    Yeah, my comment was only referring to those who are set on buying a house. But you're absolutely correct, for many people and especially younger ones just starting out, renting is not something to be ashamed of. And if you're disciplined in investing the difference between renting and owning, you'll likely do better over the long run. But that's a whole other debate topic, and frankly, I think most people will simply spend the difference rather than invest it.
    A few studies have shown that the forced savings through mortgage/ownership lead to a higher net worth.

    Considering the front-loading-interest bias of mortgage amortization that’s pretty amazing but that must be offset by the demand growth and tax free gains.

    Renters through pay a profit margin to landlords so that’sva loss somewhat comparable to banks taking interest. May be though that a renter’s diversified standard of living is much higher, earlier and longer, than the homebuyer. (Through a massive leverage of a mortgage the homebuyer brings forward s fantastic increase in one’s housing standard of living but then foregoes travel, eating out, moving about on a whim, etc.)
    in addition to the points you raised, you need to remember that canadians move on average every five years. based on the average cost of a home in canada, that means incurring about 160,000 in real estate commissions and 15,000 in other closing costs plus the costs of those periods of dual ownership or temporary accommodation. as that’s an average so the numbers would be higher in toronto and vancouver and lower in regina etc.
    I’ve moved once so just one commission on a vacant about to be expropriated house - a house larger than we ‘needed’, or need today. Then we spent thousands on renovations. So I guess that helped eliminate a move or two.

    As an aside, has anyone gone online to look at the most expensive houses for sale in Edmonton? I did so recently and was quite surprised at the high prices and the characteristics of the high end housing. Could be an interesting discussion for a new thread.

  3. #603

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    Every year, enough for a new good sized city.


    Canadian Home Construction Takes A Plunge In The Middle Of A Population Boom

    “Recent estimates from Statistics Canada show the country's population grew by more than 518,000 over the past year, to 37.1 million. That's the fastest rate Canada has seen since the late 1980s, and the fastest rate of any G7 country.”

    https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/1...th_a_23555468/

  4. #604

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    Real estate prices, sales decrease in Edmonton area

    'It’s a challenging time to say the least in our market and I don’t see it getting better'

    CBC News, Nov 03, 2018
    "...
    The average price of a residential listing was down by three per cent to $358,954, the figures show. The average condominium is sold for nine per cent less than last year, or $221,293.

    "I'm doing many, many market evaluations for clients that are struggling tremendously right now," Steele said. "They're absolutely disheartened by the value of their home." "


    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmon...nton-1.4890561



    Edmonton home prices/sales plunge: Housing report
    NICOLE BERGOT Updated: November 3, 2018
    https://edmontonjournal.com/news/loc...housing-report
    Last edited by KC; 12-11-2018 at 04:46 PM.

  5. #605
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    I'm so very glad we sold when we did. I'm happy to have this little house, with it's beautiful backyard. Dh put our Christmas lights up today...
    I hope those wanting to sell, are able, sooner than later...

  6. #606

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    Back in November:

    House prices falling in most Alberta communities
    By Mario Toneguzzi on November 7, 2018No Comment
    Condo prices in Edmonton dropped the most, says a CENTURY 21 report

    http://troymedia.com/2018/11/07/hous...lling-alberta/

  7. #607

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    Canada's Average Home Price Is Back To 2015 Levels | HuffPost Canada

    https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2019/0...da_a_23670479/



    Home prices fall for the fourth straight month, led by Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver | Financial Post

    https://business.financialpost.com/r...-month-teranet


    Declining home prices in the West pushes national average down

    https://m.mortgagebrokernews.ca/news...wn-254468.aspx
    Last edited by KC; 20-02-2019 at 06:49 AM.

  8. #608

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    “Bryce Milliken, president of the Canadian Home Builders’ Association, Edmonton region, called the reports findings “staggering.” “

    Not sure why there would be any surprise or view that numbers could in any way become ”staggering”. It’s been a cold winter and there’s been zero in the way of any economic events or surprises. I’d just chalk it up to a bit of an increase in very predictable supply volatility. We are simply a bigger city so numbers regularly break records.


    Record number of new homes sitting vacant in Edmonton: report

    DYLAN SHORT
    Updated: March 1, 2019

    https://edmontonjournal.com/news/loc...n-the-city-atb

  9. #609
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    ^I know the city is often used as short-hand, but the underlying Stats Can table shows these numbers are the for the entire CMA, not just the city. Rising mortgage rates last year also didn't help.

    Housing markets in CMAs as large as Edmonton are self-correcting. As John Rose points out, developers are already throttling back on new builds, there will likely be deals on at least some of the unabsorbed inventory, and the number of vacant units will decline.

    Great news if you're in the market for a new home, not so much for builders sitting on unabsorbed inventory.

  10. #610

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    Quote Originally Posted by East McCauley View Post
    ^I know the city is often used as short-hand, but the underlying Stats Can table shows these numbers are the for the entire CMA, not just the city. Rising mortgage rates last year also didn't help.

    Housing markets in CMAs as large as Edmonton are self-correcting. As John Rose points out, developers are already throttling back on new builds, there will likely be deals on at least some of the unabsorbed inventory, and the number of vacant units will decline.

    Great news if you're in the market for a new home, not so much for builders sitting on unabsorbed inventory.
    Real estate is always self correcting. Usually just cutting one’s price is enough to sell a property. (In some places though at some point the world has changed too much to save the local market. Detroit and hundreds or thousands of smaller towns and cities have experienced that type of decline.)


    'Don't have a hope': Edmonton condo sales slump drags on | CBC News

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmon...nton-1.5077093



    Detached home sales in Edmonton suffer five-year February low, realtors association says – Edmonton Journal

    https://edmontonjournal.com/business...r-february-low




    Red Deer bucks empty new house trend – Red Deer Advocate

    Excerpt:
    “Alberta has a record-setting number of empty new homes, but the Red Deer area is faring better than other areas of the province.

    The builders’ industry group, BILD Alberta, reported the province had 5,366 unoccupied units in February, which was largely due to inventory levels in Edmonton. That city had 3,016 empty new units, a 32 per cent increase (743 units) from February 2018.

    Meanwhile, the Red Deer area had 62 completed and empty units, a 26 per cent decrease (or 22 units) compared to February 2018. ...”

    https://www.reddeeradvocate.com/news...han-last-year/
    Last edited by KC; 30-03-2019 at 08:57 AM.

  11. #611

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    Interesting to re-read this one:

    NDP will take the blame, but Alberta's fiscal future was already written - The Globe and Mail
    HILLIARD MACBETH
    CONTRIBUTED TO THE GLOBE AND MAIL
    PUBLISHED MAY 20, 2015
    UPDATED 10 MONTHS AGO

    Excerpt:

    “Will observers criticize the imprudent lenders who funnelled oceans of debt into the overheated Alberta economy? Will they blame the perennial optimism of the construction industry or the sudden cuts in oil companies' investment plans?

    No. The NDP will step into the front line to take the heat for ...”


    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ticle24495372/

  12. #612
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    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    Interesting to re-read this one:

    NDP will take the blame, but Alberta's fiscal future was already written - The Globe and Mail
    HILLIARD MACBETH
    CONTRIBUTED TO THE GLOBE AND MAIL
    PUBLISHED MAY 20, 2015
    UPDATED 10 MONTHS AGO

    Excerpt:

    “Will observers criticize the imprudent lenders who funnelled oceans of debt into the overheated Alberta economy? Will they blame the perennial optimism of the construction industry or the sudden cuts in oil companies' investment plans?

    No. The NDP will step into the front line to take the heat for ...”


    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ticle24495372/
    Bump... prophetic.
    bump.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EdmTrekker View Post
    No. The NDP will step into the front line to take the heat for ...”


    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ticle24495372/

    Bump... prophetic.
    bump.
    I don't see it as prophetic so much as an observation of the obvious. That the NDP would face criticism for the economic state was pretty much a given. Although it's nice to find something from MacBbeth that I can agree with. Normally he's so Chicken Littlesque.

    Albertans are notorious for having a short memory for reality -- and having an elephant's memory for the revisionist narrative.

    These NDP years will be remembered by the hoi-polloi as how Team Notley screwed up the running of the great engine called the Alberta Advantage, completely forgetting that the NDP inherited it after it was run into the ground by the Conservatives. Of course The UCP will run with this revised narrative, and many of the voters will buy it.

    But the NDP deserves to take their lumps for giving Alberta some new curtains and wallpaper while the foundation was crumbling away. That's why they'll never be successful as a governing party.
    ˙
    ...From this ragged handful of tents and cabins one day will rise a city...

  14. #614

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    Quote Originally Posted by BoyleStreetBoy View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by EdmTrekker View Post
    No. The NDP will step into the front line to take the heat for ...”


    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ticle24495372/

    Bump... prophetic.
    bump.
    I don't see it as prophetic so much as an observation of the obvious. That the NDP would face criticism for the economic state was pretty much a given. Although it's nice to find something from MacBbeth that I can agree with. Normally he's so Chicken Littlesque.

    Albertans are notorious for having a short memory for reality -- and having an elephant's memory for the revisionist narrative.

    These NDP years will be remembered by the hoi-polloi as how Team Notley screwed up the running of the great engine called the Alberta Advantage, completely forgetting that the NDP inherited it after it was run into the ground by the Conservatives. Of course The UCP will run with this revised narrative, and many of the voters will buy it.

    But the NDP deserves to take their lumps for giving Alberta some new curtains and wallpaper while the foundation was crumbling away. That's why they'll never be successful as a governing party.
    I think the Globe and Mail is getting a mixed up on a number of things here. The NDP years will only be remembered as such if two things happen - first, they do not get re-elected and second the economy bounces back under a dift gov't. The article seems pessimistic about both, so there is a serious flaw in their logic.

    Perhaps everyone loves to kick a province when they are down and the Globe and Mail loves to pile on, or think there is also some sort of Ontario schadenfreude happening here also - Alberta got too big for their britches. Perhaps the Globe should as was said in our last provincial election "look in the mirror", before they start seeing problems elsewhere. Housing prices in Toronto and Vancouver are about twice that of here and even with our struggling economy average wages here are still higher than theirs, so what place is more vulnerable for a housing price crash, do you think?

    The good old Globe - lets deflect attention from our own precarious position by trying to focus attention elsewhere. I take Mr. MacBeth more seriously than most, but this article should really go in their comedy section.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave View Post
    I think the Globe and Mail is getting a mixed up on a number of things here.

    The NDP years will only be remembered as such if two things happen - first, they do not get re-elected and second the economy bounces back under a dift gov't. The article seems pessimistic about both, so there is a serious flaw in their logic.

    The good old Globe - lets deflect attention from our own precarious position by trying to focus attention elsewhere. I take Mr. MacBeth more seriously than most, but this article should really go in their comedy section.
    Et tu, Dave...

    Note the date that it was written -- MacBeth wrote this article four years ago when the NDP first took office.

    This isn't the Globe and Mail bashing Alberta or the NDP, it's an Albertan making some valid points about a new government having to deal with the mess made by previous regimes. MacBeth makes no mention of the election that's 4 years in the future from 2015.

    From my perspective this is the most accurate call MacBeth's made, and it's the least "amusing" piece he's ever written.
    ˙
    ...From this ragged handful of tents and cabins one day will rise a city...

  16. #616

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    Quote Originally Posted by BoyleStreetBoy View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dave View Post
    I think the Globe and Mail is getting a mixed up on a number of things here.

    The NDP years will only be remembered as such if two things happen - first, they do not get re-elected and second the economy bounces back under a dift gov't. The article seems pessimistic about both, so there is a serious flaw in their logic.

    The good old Globe - lets deflect attention from our own precarious position by trying to focus attention elsewhere. I take Mr. MacBeth more seriously than most, but this article should really go in their comedy section.
    Et tu, Dave...

    Note the date that it was written -- MacBeth wrote this article four years ago when the NDP first took office.

    This isn't the Globe and Mail bashing Alberta or the NDP, it's an Albertan making some valid points about a new government having to deal with the mess made by previous regimes. MacBeth makes no mention of the election that's 4 years in the future from 2015.

    From my perspective this is the most accurate call MacBeth's made, and it's the least "amusing" piece he's ever written.
    I see there are actually two dates on it - one is updated three years later. I noticed the older date later. In any event, I think buy low/sell high advise is always the best, at some point the bad news ends or is completely discounted and that applies to housing too although the cycles seem a lot longer than for some other investments. Perhaps Alberta is currently a bit ahead of Ontario on the down curve at this point, but I think the tumble there will ultimately be more severe because their prices are more out of line with affordability.

    We had falling house prices in Alberta in the 80's and the 90's too when the PC's were in power - the early 80's one was quite brutal, but I don't think the PC's really got blamed for that. Its economics - interest rates, price of oil, etc.. that affects housing prices not the party in power. The comedy part to me is not that MacBeth is somewhat right about the decline here, but that this Ontario publication was focusing on Alberta when really the much more potentially severe problem is right in their own back yard.

  17. #617
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    I can attest to the falling house prices, currently have my home listed for 250K under what it should be listed for.

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    House prices have declined by 5-10%. That must be some shack you're selling to take that large of a loss.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marcel Petrin View Post
    House prices have declined by 5-10%. That must be some shack you're selling to take that large of a loss.
    Acreage. Definitely not a shack.

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    Quote Originally Posted by GranaryMan View Post
    I can attest to the falling house prices, currently have my home listed for 250K under what it should be listed for.

    That's a lot! friends of ours just lowered their condo price for the third time( although the first time they were asking too much imho) We couldn't find another acreage when we were looking, now of course we don't need one

    Good luck selling it though..now the weather is nicer, I've seen a few homes near us, with sold signs on..
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    Quote Originally Posted by GranaryMan View Post
    I can attest to the falling house prices, currently have my home listed for 250K under what it should be listed for.
    Except that it's only really worth what someone will pay for it.

  22. #622

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    And if you’re upgrading, you’re probably able to upgrade for a comparable if not better differential - if you stay in the same market. If you’re cashing out, then that’s too bad. (The buyer however will appreciate the savings.)

    In our boom-bust, commodity dependent economy, both acreages and luxury homes are known for their own price volatility.

    Then there’s demographic forces and today I’d guess that the aging baby boomer effect is also working against some some property types.
    Last edited by KC; 08-04-2019 at 04:04 PM.

  23. #623

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    Quote Originally Posted by GranaryMan View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Marcel Petrin View Post
    House prices have declined by 5-10%. That must be some shack you're selling to take that large of a loss.
    Acreage. Definitely not a shack.
    Always relative to what you paid for it originally. If the value doubled from the time you bought it and now drops 10%, you are still 80% ahead.
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  24. #624

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    Edmonton tops in province for overbuilding homes: CMHC report | Edmonton Journal

    https://edmontonjournal.com/news/loc...es-cmhc-report

  25. #625

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    Homeownership 'party ultimately comes to an end': CMHC CEO - BNN Bloomberg



    “...Whereas here [in Canada] we glorify homeownership. We think it’s the only vehicle for savings,” Evan Siddall, president and CEO of the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), said in an interview with BNN Bloomberg’s Amanda Lang on Wednesday.
    “This party ultimately comes to an end, and the people who are going to get hurt are young people.”

    http://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/this-part...fied-1.1255808




    Interesting to read these articles years later:


    Real Estate Matters: Local bubble shows no sign of bursting in 2015
    BY SCOTT BOLLINGER, EDMONTON JOURNAL
    ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED: DEC 3, 2014

    https://edmontonjournal.com/life/hom...rsting-in-2015



    Here are five Canadian cities where housing prices have actually dropped in the past year
    By: Alexandra Bosanac on June 30, 2017

    https://www.lowestrates.ca/blog/home...pped-past-year


    Teranet House Price Index Shows Western Canada's Big-City Housing Becoming A Rough Investment
    Edmonton house prices are lower today than they were 12 years ago.
    02/13/2019
    By Daniel Tencer

    “But Calgary and Edmonton's housing markets have actually been struggling much longer than that, the Teranet data shows. If you bought a house in these markets in the past decade or so, it's unlikely you've seen any significant gains in the value of your home, and possibly a decline.

    Both cities experienced what looks like a classic bubble pattern in their house prices a decade ago, before turning down during the Great Recession.

    Edmonton's house prices never recovered from that decline, and are today 6.3 per cent lower than their peak in — get this — September of 2007. ...”



    https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2019/0...es_a_23669004/




    Canada Has a Broken Housing System and It Has ****** Over Millennials
    Damn, it was good to be a Boomer.

    By Drew Brown
    Oct 29 2018

    “... Could you tell me about your dissertation work?
    Kristjana Loptson: My research was initially looking at housing security. I wanted to understand why housing was becoming so unaffordable, and why governments weren’t doing anything to deal with that in a more effective way. It increasingly became focused around about home ownership, and examining what's changed in terms of the political and economic significance of home ownership. And the more I got into it, the more I was like, "oh my God!"

    Basically, [Canada has] developed into a housing economy. Housing has become one of the key pillars of our entire economic and financial system.

    Everything that's happening in Canada is not unique to Canada, though, and I think that's something that's important. It’s a symptom of a broader international story.

    So what does it mean to have a society premised on buying a house if it becomes increasingly prohibitive to buy a house?
    So there's a catch-22. The reason why ...”



    “But they also don't want to **** with that, because...”



    So the biggest financial product now is home equity lines of credit. Every year, [household] debt just goes up and up, and it's mostly mortgage debt. And the totally bonkers thing about it is that we have this crazy socialized insurance system, which basically leaves us all on the hook in case something goes wrong. So we're collectively gambling in this stupid game, where if it all goes well then governments benefit from it, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation benefits from it, banks benefit, homeowners benefit, speculators benefit…

    But if it doesn't work out? The banks walk away, they have no skin in the game. They have nothing on the hook. The federal government is obligated to pay for every defaulted mortgage that is insured by them.



    https://www.vice.com/en_ca/article/4...er-millennials

    Bolding mine
    Last edited by KC; 09-05-2019 at 08:58 PM.

  26. #626

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    Thar goes the "Canadian" dream. I guess the elites are no longer afraid the communists will take over. Otherwise, they'd push for more 'ownership society'. Incidentally, the US cut a deal with USSR in the mid-1920s whereby it financed the Soviet Union (that's how the Koch money was made) in exchange for a promise by Lenin not to interfere too much in the US. Domestically, the US pushed for the American Dream.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    Homeownership 'party ultimately comes to an end': CMHC CEO - BNN Bloomberg
    “...Whereas here [in Canada] we glorify homeownership. We think it’s the only vehicle for savings,” Evan Siddall, president and CEO of the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), said in an interview with BNN Bloomberg’s Amanda Lang on Wednesday.
    “This party ultimately comes to an end, and the people who are going to get hurt are young people.”

    http://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/this-part...fied-1.1255808
    The bylines to this article are misleading. Siddall is referring to people's behaviours in larger centers where housing is too expensive and people are over-stretching to purchase resulting in being mortgage poor, or defaulting. He says the behaviour should change in these centers where people should look at renting and invest their money in ways other than home purchases.

    Siddall mentions smaller centers like Mississauga and Abbottsford (places like Edmonton) remaining as places that the CMHC continues to push for affordability to help young people buy homes. In these smaller centers after the first five years of a mortgage it usually makes better long term economic sense to buy rather than rent.

    In that case Edmonton is looking good. The market has been stagnant for the past five years, and if things go according to the age old boom/stagnate cycle we should be due to some dramatic price increases in the next 2 to five years.

    One source says regarding Edmonton house price average of a single-family home is $427,657 in May 2019. (Down from 434,028 in 2018.)

    Time will tell.
    ˙
    ...From this ragged handful of tents and cabins one day will rise a city...

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    Edmonton real estate struggled as Notley was aggressively hiring in the public sector. When Kenney's blue ribbon panel inevitably suggests some deep cuts, Edmonton will be where Calgary was a few years ago.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Downtown View Post
    Edmonton real estate struggled as Notley was aggressively hiring in the public sector. When Kenney's blue ribbon panel inevitably suggests some deep cuts, Edmonton will be where Calgary was a few years ago.
    I doubt that will happen. Kenny is shifting gears and headed toward strategic investment in P3 etc. The spend "now" to finance capital will be lessened and that takes pressure off the budgeting process as you shove payments out to the future. He knows full well the public service will downsize through attrition. No need for cuts. Right now the public sector is bulging with 60+ year olds ... some waiting for buyouts and others waiting retirement. By year 3 of his mandate 10% will have retired without bullets being used. All he needs to do is a hiring freeze except emergent justifiable situations.
    Last edited by EdmTrekker; 14-05-2019 at 12:27 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EdmTrekker View Post
    No need for cuts. Right now the public sector is bulging with 60+ year olds ... some waiting for buyouts and others waiting retirement.
    You say that like it's a bad thing...

    Seriously, though, the old-schoolers shouldn't be dismissed out of hand. Edmonton is a good example of that: the younger city managers are making changes that aren't necessarily better.

    Pickle juice on the roadways is just one example of the shortcomings of the new guard.
    ˙
    ...From this ragged handful of tents and cabins one day will rise a city...

  31. #631

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    Quote Originally Posted by BoyleStreetBoy View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by EdmTrekker View Post
    No need for cuts. Right now the public sector is bulging with 60+ year olds ... some waiting for buyouts and others waiting retirement.
    You say that like it's a bad thing...

    Seriously, though, the old-schoolers shouldn't be dismissed out of hand. Edmonton is a good example of that: the younger city managers are making changes that aren't necessarily better.

    Pickle juice on the roadways is just one example of the shortcomings of the new guard.
    If the point is that current demographics make it easier for attrition, I would agree with that part.

    However, I was talking earlier today with someone in their late 50's taking a new (better) job to advance the probably final phase of their career. Their comment was the organization they are leaving has no "institutional memory". Large organizations have a huge number of processes and systems in place to keep things going smoothly that only a few (sometime under acknowledged or under appreciated people) understand well. Sometimes when those people go, things do not go so smoothly after that and the organizations can find themselves in a bit of a pickle. So don't be too eager to wish all the old timers bon voyage.

  32. #632

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by BoyleStreetBoy View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by EdmTrekker View Post
    No need for cuts. Right now the public sector is bulging with 60+ year olds ... some waiting for buyouts and others waiting retirement.
    You say that like it's a bad thing...

    Seriously, though, the old-schoolers shouldn't be dismissed out of hand. Edmonton is a good example of that: the younger city managers are making changes that aren't necessarily better.

    Pickle juice on the roadways is just one example of the shortcomings of the new guard.
    If the point is that current demographics make it easier for attrition, I would agree with that part.

    However, I was talking earlier today with someone in their late 50's taking a new (better) job to advance the probably final phase of their career. Their comment was the organization they are leaving has no "institutional memory". Large organizations have a huge number of processes and systems in place to keep things going smoothly that only a few (sometime under acknowledged or under appreciated people) understand well. Sometimes when those people go, things do not go so smoothly after that and the organizations can find themselves in a bit of a pickle. So don't be too eager to wish all the old timers bon voyage.
    I’ve encountered that situation first hand. I’ve worked directly with the few long-standing employees that had a depth of knowledge that I could only dream of gaining and never came close to matching yet watched them get treated like dumb-old employees by a highly credentialed new guard - one that didn’t realize for the longest time that they were the ones that were out of their depth.

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