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Thread: What should NAFTA-II include / exclude?

  1. #101
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    Quote Originally Posted by kkozoriz View Post
    And cut off all Uranium exports.
    Since that would account for about 25% of America's uranium usage. Australia accounts for the other 25%. Russia outputs about another 25% but we all know about US/Russia.
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  2. #102

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    Quote Originally Posted by kkozoriz View Post
    And cut off all Uranium exports.
    Maybe cut Trump's cable connection to Faux News and his twitter connection...

    Watch him go nuclear...

    Last edited by Edmonton PRT; 06-09-2018 at 12:23 PM.
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  3. #103

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    Quote Originally Posted by envaneo View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by kkozoriz View Post
    And cut off all Uranium exports.
    Since that would account for about 25% of America's uranium usage. Australia accounts for the other 25%. Russia outputs about another 25% but we all know about US/Russia.
    Actually, a bit more than that when you're talking about natural Uranium.

    US Uranium Imports by Supplying Country
    JULY 27, 2018

    Canada: US$585.4 million (90.6% of US natural uranium imports)
    Kazakhstan: $46.2 million (7.2%)
    South Africa: $14.5 million (2.3%)
    Sweden: $74,000 (0.01%)
    Switzerland: $34,000 (0.01%)
    United Kingdom: $14,000 (0.002%)
    France: $13,000 (0.002%)
    Japan: $4,000 (0.001%)

    http://www.worldstopexports.com/us-u...lying-country/

  4. #104
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    ^ If I'm reading this right 90.6% of America's uranium imports come from Canada?

    Uranium though can last a long time. Just a fistfull can power a nuclear sub for decades.
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  5. #105

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    Beyond the military uses (reactors in ships/subs & weapons) Uranium is used in medicine for cancer treatment, civilian power generation, irradiation of food products to kill parasites, pests and bacteria, industry (including x-ray inspection in the auto and other industries).

    The US uses a lot of Uranium.

  6. #106
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    That specifically says "natural uranium". I would assume that may not include processed or enriched uranium. But I admit I know nothing about uranium production, enrichment, trade etc.

  7. #107

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    The stuff is better for you than that "artificial" uranium.

    Only buy the purest organic uranium grown in Canada!
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  8. #108

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marcel Petrin View Post
    That specifically says "natural uranium". I would assume that may not include processed or enriched uranium. But I admit I know nothing about uranium production, enrichment, trade etc.
    From the link:

    Of the $2.1 billion in American uranium imports during 2017, 68.5% ($1.4 billion) was for enriched uranium while 31.5% ($646.3 million) encompassed purchases of natural uranium and related compounds.
    Canada provides 90% of the 31% of total.

    So, they could try to replace it with more enriched Uranium, which costs more or they could try to find another supplier of natural Uranium which would take a while because they'd have to ramp up production. Either way, it would hit them pretty hard with ~25% of their total supply disappearing overnight.
    Last edited by kkozoriz; 07-09-2018 at 02:18 AM.

  9. #109
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    Quote Originally Posted by kkozoriz View Post
    Beyond the military uses (reactors in ships/subs & weapons) Uranium is used in medicine for cancer treatment, civilian power generation, irradiation of food products to kill parasites, pests and bacteria, industry (including x-ray inspection in the auto and other industries).

    The US uses a lot of Uranium.
    I'm well aware that uranium is used for other things, thanks I just used that as an example. The US needs about 50 million pounds of uranium each year to power their 100 reactors. if we cut out their uranium, they could be in for some serious trouble if they don't find another source. Russia?
    Last edited by envaneo; 07-09-2018 at 12:01 PM.
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  10. #110

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    It would take a lot of time to ramp up new sources and it would have to include additional transportation costs as well. Right now, it's as close as northern Saskatchewan.

  11. #111

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    Quote Originally Posted by envaneo View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by kkozoriz View Post
    Beyond the military uses (reactors in ships/subs & weapons) Uranium is used in medicine for cancer treatment, civilian power generation, irradiation of food products to kill parasites, pests and bacteria, industry (including x-ray inspection in the auto and other industries).

    The US uses a lot of Uranium.
    I'm well aware that uranium is used for other things, thanks I just used that as an example. The US needs about 50 million tons of uranium each year to power their 100 reactors. if we cut out their uranium, they could be in for some serious trouble if they don't find another source. Russia?
    I think you have your units incorrect. Not 50 million tons but 50 million pounds.

    As countries are not able to supply their own needs of uranium economically, countries have resorted to importing uranium ore from elsewhere. For example, owners of U.S. nuclear power reactors bought 67 million pounds (30 kt) of natural uranium in 2006. Out of that 84%, or 56 million pounds (25 kt), were imported from foreign suppliers, according to the Energy Department.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_uranium
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  12. #112
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    We could also be annexed.

  13. #113

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    Quote Originally Posted by Drumbones View Post
    We could also be annexed.
    Annexation movements of Canada - Wikipedia
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexa...ents_of_Canada

  14. #114
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    Canada produces ~ 20 % of the worlds uranium. That's our ace in the hole
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  15. #115

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    Interesting article:

    Lessons on negotiating free trade | The Kingston Whig-Standard

    Excerpts:

    “During the 1983 federal Progressive Conservative leadership campaign, Mulroney had opposed free trade with the United States. However, John Crosbie, a minister in Mulroney’s cabinet, writes in his 1997 political memoir, “No Holds Barred: My Life in Politics,” that his former boss had a change of heart after becoming prime minister. Crosbie speculates that the Macdonald Commission’s embrace of “the notion” of free trade with the United States “probably ...”

    “However, Crosbie pulls no punches when assessing the Americans’ negotiating tactics. “The Americans are bully boys,” he writes. And he asserts that “they are bully boys with or without a free trade agreement.”

    The difference is that with a free trade agreement in place, it provides Canada with “a few better means of protecting ourselves,” he says of the importance of rules-based trade.

    “The more we can get world trade rules codified, the better off we will be as the weaker partner in our relationship with the United States,” Crosbie concludes. And he points out that huge powers, such as the U.S. and the EU, can protect themselves by applying countervailing duties and blocking imports.

    However, Crosbie stresses that “as a middle power, it’s in Canada’s interest to have rules and a system for adjudicating disputes.”

    Negotiating lessons
    ...”

    https://www.thewhig.com/opinion/colu...ing-free-trade

  16. #116

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    I wonder if Trump’s tariffs on China may mean that we will benefit from China dumping here.

  17. #117

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    Quote Originally Posted by envaneo View Post
    Canada produces ~ 20 % of the worlds uranium. That's our ace in the hole
    Didn’t Russia buy most of it?
    (We can be their slave labour.)

  18. #118

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    Nope, the company that Russia bout from a Canadian firm is mining in the US and cannot export any of it. Doesn't affect imports of Canadian Uranium at all.

  19. #119

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    Trump understands base human nature and how it’s self-serving - despite all the rhetoric suggesting otherwise.

    How Trump split Mexico and Canada in NAFTA talks


    Throughout most of the talks, Pena Nieto’s administration had reasoned that, together, Canada and Mexico had more leverage in negotiations that were stacked in Trump's favor. Both economies depend heavily on U.S. customers, with Mexico sending about 80 percent of exports to the United States and Canada sending about 75 percent. Together, Mexico and Canada account for slightly more than a third of U.S. exports.

    But on Aug. 27, less than two months after Trump’s call to Lopez Obrador, negotiators for the United States and Mexico struck a deal.

    “Mexico had to look out for Mexico,” said Moises Kalach, head of the international negotiating arm of the CCE business lobby, which represented Mexico's private sector at the NAFTA talks.

    Mexican officials point out that Canada had previously signaled that it might take the same path. Early last year, the Canadian ambassador to Washington, David MacNaughton, said publicly that Canada would act trilaterally or bilaterally depending on its interests.

    https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/tr...--finance.html


    Last year:



    Will Canada and Mexico stick together on NAFTA?

    If push comes to shove, Canada may have to jettison Mexico and pursue its own bilateral side deal with the U.S.

    May 10, 2017

    “A strong, newly negotiated three-way NAFTA is the goal, said Maryscott Greenwood, head of the Canadian American Business Council. But strained relations between Trump and Mexico could well make that difficult, she acknowledged.

    “If it’s politically impossible … for the U.S. to move forward with a comprehensive economic relationship with Mexico for various reasons – Mexican politics, U.S. politics – then we think, ‘Don’t be delayed by that; move forward with a bilateral negotiation,”’ Greenwood recently told the House of Commons foreign affairs committee.

    “If we can’t have trilateral, certainly we should move forward on a new agreement with Canada and the United States. We think it’s doable and possible.”



    https://www.macleans.ca/politics/wil...ther-on-nafta/

    Bolding mine
    Last edited by KC; 27-09-2018 at 12:21 AM.

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  21. #121
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    Walk away and revisit it in a couple of years when someone else is in charge. Yes, it'll hurt in the meantime, but signing something like what the US proposes could hurt us for a lot longer.
    They're going to park their car over there. You're going to park your car over here. Get it?

  22. #122
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    A deal signed at the eleventh hour. Had to give on the dairy but being from a dairying family most knew something had to give sooner or later. Quebec election today, it may change some voting there depending what the candidates have said. Didn’t have time to read much, just glanced over it before bed. Dispute mechanism stays intact.

  23. #123

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    I would suggest that all dairy products sold in Canada be clearly and distinctly labelled as "Produced in Canada" so that I can, with others, buy only Canadian dairy products.

  24. #124
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Man From YEG View Post
    I would suggest that all dairy products sold in Canada be clearly and distinctly labelled as "Produced in Canada" so that I can, with others, buy only Canadian dairy products.
    i’m not sure if that would be sufficient for you, just like “made in canada” doesn’t tell you where the fabric or threads or dyes come from in a garment marked “made in canada”. how do you know if the cheese on your pizza or your burger does or doesn’t include non-canadian dairy products even if it was ultimately produced/packaged in canada? this will be a grey area for consumers until such time as block chain technology can be implemented in areas like this (which is where it will add value, not as an ersatz currency) or we accept very large and complex labels that few will read and that still can’t be completely relied upon.
    Last edited by kcantor; 01-10-2018 at 08:43 AM.
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  25. #125

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    USMC’eh

  26. #126

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    Quote Originally Posted by kcantor View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by The Man From YEG View Post
    I would suggest that all dairy products sold in Canada be clearly and distinctly labelled as "Produced in Canada" so that I can, with others, buy only Canadian dairy products.
    i’m not sure if that would be sufficient for you, just like “made in canada” doesn’t tell you where the fabric or threads or dyes come from in a garment marked “made in canada”. how do you know if the cheese on your pizza or your burger does or doesn’t include non-canadian dairy products even if it was ultimately produced/packaged in canada? this will be a grey area for consumers until such time as block chain technology can be implemented in areas like this (which is where it will add value, not as an ersatz currency) or we accept very large and complex labels that few will read and that still can’t be completely relied upon.
    I recognize that blended foods will have issues but I look at what French's has done regarding ketchup and would indicate that as former Heinz devotee I haven't bought any of their products since they closed down their plants and stopped buying from Leamington growers.

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/fre...nada-1.4104656

  27. #127

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    Quote Originally Posted by The Man From YEG View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by kcantor View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by The Man From YEG View Post
    I would suggest that all dairy products sold in Canada be clearly and distinctly labelled as "Produced in Canada" so that I can, with others, buy only Canadian dairy products.
    i’m not sure if that would be sufficient for you, just like “made in canada” doesn’t tell you where the fabric or threads or dyes come from in a garment marked “made in canada”. how do you know if the cheese on your pizza or your burger does or doesn’t include non-canadian dairy products even if it was ultimately produced/packaged in canada? this will be a grey area for consumers until such time as block chain technology can be implemented in areas like this (which is where it will add value, not as an ersatz currency) or we accept very large and complex labels that few will read and that still can’t be completely relied upon.
    I recognize that blended foods will have issues but I look at what French's has done regarding ketchup and would indicate that as former Heinz devotee I haven't bought any of their products since they closed down their plants and stopped buying from Leamington growers.

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/fre...nada-1.4104656
    I suspect that the vast majority of consumers will place any of: price, brand, convenience, habit, or number of other factors ahead of a preference for Canadian made products or services (or maximum Canadian value added). There will be a few hot button issues triggering the French’s vs Heinz like decisions but very few.

    Moreover, based on retained earnings / retained margins, a single trip to the US or Mexico could very well overwhelm a decade or two of loyal Canadian product purchases. Nonetheless the favoured Canadian company would still be a winner.

  28. #128

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    The "fantastic historic deal" seems more like a number of trivial re-writes, but under a new name so Trump can crow about it to his Gullibles.
    I am in no way entitled to your opinion...

  29. #129

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    Quote Originally Posted by Drumbones View Post
    A deal signed at the eleventh hour. Had to give on the dairy but being from a dairying family most knew something had to give sooner or later. Quebec election today, it may change some voting there depending what the candidates have said. Didn’t have time to read much, just glanced over it before bed. Dispute mechanism stays intact.

    Well, our current system might be a superior economic model with nationalistic benefits but generally it’s seen as a lefty-socialistic-government system that corrupts and distorts capitalism. It’s tough to battle old ideological notions.

  30. #130

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    According to the published text of the agreement, the tariff-free quota of American milk allowed into Canada will increase to 50,000,000 litres after six years (I'm assuming a litre of milk weighs a kilo). The government statistics say that the per-capita consumption of milk in Canada in 2017 was about 67 litres, having fallen by ten litres in six years. Assuming this trend continues, Canadians will be drinking about 57 litres of milk each annually about six years from now. If the population stays at 35,000,000, total milk consumption will be 2,000,000,000 litres, which means that the USA will have been granted 2.7% of the market.

    I'm not entirely sure what to think about the dairy concessions, but these figures offer some perspective.
    Last edited by AShetsen; 01-10-2018 at 09:36 AM.

  31. #131

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spudly View Post
    The "fantastic historic deal" seems more like a number of trivial re-writes, but under a new name so Trump can crow about it to his Gullibles.
    Well considering a lot of Canadians would have faced ruin if NAFTA was cancelled, achieving anything close to the status quo would be fantastic to them.

    My view is that free trade is wonderful in the aggregate but it creates many of the risks of “one company towns” face.

    Take Alberta. We focus on our competitive advantage of oil extraction and do little else. We increase our efficiency by automating the extraction and shipping as much as possible. The population slowly looses any primary business employment and just lives off the notional dividends the cash cow produces through taxes, royalties and maintenance and periodic capital investment.

  32. #132

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    I am reading in a bunch of places that Canada completely surrendered to the USA on Intellectual Property:

    Early review from a leading Canadian intellectual property expert on the USMCA: Canada completely surrendered on IP, the single largest driver of value creation in the world economy in the past few decades. #USMCA #NAFTA

    https://twitter.com/SeanSilcoff/stat...41442209681408

  33. #133
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    Well... that's ******.
    They're going to park their car over there. You're going to park your car over here. Get it?

  34. #134

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    Quote Originally Posted by MrOilers View Post
    I am reading in a bunch of places that Canada completely surrendered to the USA on Intellectual Property:

    Early review from a leading Canadian intellectual property expert on the USMCA: Canada completely surrendered on IP, the single largest driver of value creation in the world economy in the past few decades. #USMCA #NAFTA

    https://twitter.com/SeanSilcoff/stat...41442209681408
    hewers of wood and drawers of bitumen


    Hewers of Wood and Drawers of Water - Parli.

    “A biblical term (Joshua 9:21)1 that the Oxford Dictionary defines as “menial drudges; labourers”. For Canada, it has been pejorative shorthand for the country’s historic reliance on natural resources – versus “value-added” manufacturing – for economic growth. The biblical phrase was first used by Minister of Finance Leonard Tilley2 in 1879: “The time has arrived when we are to decide whether we will be simply hewers of wood and drawers of water…or will rise to the position, which, I believe Providence has destined us to occupy.”

    By the last decades of the 20th Century, Canadian manufacturing exports were actually eclipsing resource exports. While international impressions of Canada being a commodity-based economy continued, the reality was something different; by 2002, manufactured products accounted for 54% of the country’s exports. However, through the combined impacts of globalization, lower labour costs in developing economies, a higher Canadian dollar, and growing demand for Canadian resources – especially energy – by 2014, the percentage for manufactured goods had shrunk to 36%.

    Once again, Canada is back to its historic role as “hewers of wood and drawers of water” – and clearly oil – to the world.”

    http://www.parli.ca/hewers-wood-drawers-water/
    The last decades of the 20th century - commodity prices had fallen. Oil prices peaked in the early 80s then fell as low as about $10/bbl by around 1999. So, I’m not sure if we were all that great at munufactured goods.
    Last edited by KC; 01-10-2018 at 06:48 PM.

  35. #135

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    With its new trade deal, Canada surrenders sovereignty to a bully: Neil Macdonald | CBC News

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/canada-usmca-1.4845494

  36. #136

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    Dairy farmers disappointed.

    Boohoo..

    Hopefully cheese prices will cost less than steak ( think about that for a minute) and milk will cost less than gasoline. (Think about that too)
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  37. #137
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    When half of Canada's diary industry comes from Quebec, we don't want too support Quebec right?
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  38. #138

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    You got that wrong. What is this perception that half of the dairy comes from Quebec. Others posted straight facts that disproved this myth months ago.

    Posted June 11, 2018 http://www.connect2edmonton.ca/showt...Review!/page61
    Quote Originally Posted by Edmonton PRT View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by East McCauley View Post
    ^^Here is a link to an infographic with the number of dairy farms, cows and heifers by province in Canada:

    http://www.dairyinfo.gc.ca/index_e.p...rm-ferme&s3=nb
    Thanks for that
    Quebec & Ontario have 62% of the population and 69% of the dairy cows. Difference is only 7%. Nothing to cry over a bit of spilt milk...


    Quote Originally Posted by Marcel Petrin View Post

    Oh, my bad then. Roughly 8500 of the dairy farms are outside of Alberta given your facts from the dairy lobby, or something like 94%. There's probably a similar number in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. So the fact remains that 80-90% of the dairy farms in Canada are in Ontario and Quebec.
    Not anywhere near the numbers that Marcel was shooting off the hip. Alberta dairy farms have an average of 152 cows but Ontario and Quebec are much smaller operations with 86 and 65 cows/farm respectively. BC has only 400 farms but very large operations with an average of 200 cows. Quebec has the smallest average dairy farm size in all of Canada.
    Out of Canada's total of 946,000 cows, Quebec has 346,600. That is 36.7% of Canada's dairy supply and 23.2% of Canada's people. Quebec does have a greater proportion of dairy farm production but not half of them
    Last edited by Edmonton PRT; 01-10-2018 at 10:26 PM.
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  39. #139

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    It wasn't a one man show, regardless of how Scheer is attempting to spin it.

    It's 'a bit cheeky' for Conservatives to say they could have negotiated a better trade deal: Kim Campbell


    What do you make of the kind of heavy criticisms from Andrew Scheer and his fellow Conservatives about this deal?


    I think that it's a bit cheeky for the Conservative leader to suggest that his party could have done better.


    [Former Conservative industry minister] James Moore and [former Conservative interim leader] Rona Ambrose were part of the advisory committee. You know, this was not a single-party negotiating strategy.


    To the extent that we've managed to dodge the bullet, I think all parties should take credit for it and not nit-pick.

    https://www.cbc.ca/radio/asithappens...bell-1.4846992

  40. #140

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    Trump says he’s gotten rid of NAFTA, but has he?
    https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2...ut-has-he.html

    WASHINGTON—On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump declared of his trade agreement with Canada and Mexico: “It’s a brand new deal. It’s not NAFTA redone. It’s a brand new deal.” Later in the day, he said, “NAFTA was a disaster for our country…Essentially, we’re terminating NAFTA.”

    On Tuesday, the chairman of Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, Kevin Hassett, went on television to talk about the agreement. He referred to it as the “new NAFTA.” Later in the day, Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley told Bloomberg that Congress could vote quickly on the agreement, since “95 per cent of what we will be voting on is the same as NAFTA.”

    Trump’s colleagues are more right than he is.



    The president has a political interest in pretending he has eradicated a North American Free Trade Agreement he has called the worst trade agreement in world history. But the new agreement, named the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) at Trump’s urging, retains the central features and most secondary features of the 24-year-old NAFTA, trade experts say.


    Trump’s critics are wrong to claim that Trump has changed nothing but the name. The new agreement makes dozens of policy changes, some of them significant.


    Many of the changes, however, are incremental tweaks. And where there is entirely new text that was not in the original NAFTA, a significant chunk of it was borrowed from the 12-country Trans-Pacific Partnership, an agreement Trump has disparaged and withdrawn the U.S. from.
    Trump; "It’s a brand new deal. It’s not NAFTA redone. It’s a brand new deal"

    Yes, Mr. Snake Oil Salesman, New label, same bottle, a little snake milk added but still the same deal.
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  41. #141
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    I read that the exemptions for goods brought into Canada have been raised to $40 (no taxes), and $150 (no duties). This is up from the $20 before. I haven't read if the amount for gifts has been changed from the $60 it was previously.
    They're going to park their car over there. You're going to park your car over here. Get it?

  42. #142

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    ^^ Same deal with some additional benefits to the US, just so that Trump can claim a win. BTW he totally did win, we blinked first. We conceded to the threat of an auto tariff. Now he can focus on his trade war with China (and we're the extra ammunition).

  43. #143
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    There is definitely a method behind his madness.

  44. #144

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    No, there's madness behind his madness. He just wants treaties and deals to have his name on them . That's what makes them "the best" instead of "the worst".

  45. #145

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    The method to his madness is that...he has to advantage of US being more powerful economically and he has the advantage of running a democracy like a dictatorship. So he does whatever he wants and won't rest until he gets his win. If the situation was reversed and we were to threaten tariff, you know what Trump would do? Retaliate. He doesn't care about the people, the nation, just his own personal reputation and profit.

    I thought he was a ***** to open up an (economic) fight on so many fronts (Mexico, Canada, China, etc.) But then Mexico gave in, Canada conceded...
    Last edited by Meo; 04-10-2018 at 01:42 PM. Reason: ***** = stupid idjit

  46. #146

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    Americans just end up paying more for steel, aluminium and anything else that we retaliate on when he ads tariffs .
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  47. #147

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    Quote Originally Posted by Meo View Post
    I thought he was a ***** to open up an (economic) fight on so many fronts (Mexico, Canada, China, etc.) But then Mexico gave in, Canada conceded...

    Over and over again, people keep making the same mistake in thinking he is some kind of a dummy. Criticize him however you want, but he is highly successful and he knows exactly how to manipulate people. He talked about this in 'The Art of the Deal' - one of the ways he misdirects his opponents is by making them think he is totally ignorant.

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